By Bob Matthews
Democrat and Chronicle

(Sunday, February 3, 2002) -- When the Patriots run the ball -- In two playoff games, New England had 55 running plays and 91 passing plays. The Patriots ideally will have more runs than passes today in order to control the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of the explosive St. Louis offense.

Good game plan but easier said than done.

The Patriots averaged a modest 3.8 yards per carry this season and the Rams ranked third in rush defense (86.6 yards per game).

New England's offensive line has a size advantage on St. Louis' front seven and is more adept at run blocking than pass protection. Damien Woody is one of the NFL's most athletic centers and could help spring Antowain Smith for a few long gainers.

For New England to win, Smith probably would need 20 to 25 carries and average at least 4.0 yards per attempt.

When the Patriots pass the ball -- Quarterback Tom Brady is 13-3 since replacing injured Drew Bledsoe as starting quarterback. He triggers a conservative, low-risk passing attack and is particularly adept in the short game. He reads defenses well and unloads the ball quickly. He suffered a twisted left ankle last week against Pittsburgh but isn't much of a scrambler even when 100 percent healthy. He has performed well in the clutch and his teammates believe in him.

If the Patriots fall behind by more than two TDs and Brady's ankle is bothering him, coach Bill Belichick might call on veteran Drew Bledsoe, who was effective in relief last week. Bledsoe isn't as quick or mobile as Brady or as accurate on short passes, but he has a better touch on deep throws and might be the team's best chance to win if the game becomes a shootout.

Troy Brown is one of the NFL's most underrated wide receivers and speedy David Patten also is a big-play threat. They've more than offset the absence of talented but troubled Terry Glenn. The Rams' cover two scheme seldom allows a long TD pass but can be soft on short and medium routes. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins had 14 catches in the regular season before haunting Oakland with 10 catches in the snow in the playoff game.

Brady and/or Bledsoe must pay particular attention to veteran right cornerback Aeneas Williams, who has enjoyed a spectacular postseason.

Smith isn't much of a pass-receiving threat but backup running backs Kevin Faulk and J.R. Redmond are.

Pass protection could be a problem. The Patriots allowed 46 sacks this season and Rams situational pass rusher Leonard Little (14.5 sacks) could be a major factor in the outcome.

When the Rams run the ball -- Marshall Faulk is by far the NFL's best running back and was the main reason the Rams averaged a league-best 4.9 yards per running play this season. The Patriots ranked 19th in rush defense (Philadelphia ranked 18th and Faulk tore up the Eagles for 159 yards and 2 TDs last week).

New England did a good job last week against Pittsburgh's top-ranked running attack but Jerome Bettis obviously wasn't close to top form. The Patriots need big performances from rookie Richard Seymour (vs. struggling Rams' left guard Tom Nutten) and middle linebacker Tedy Bruschi to keep Faulk reasonably in check.

With linebackers Bryan Cox and Ted Johnson recovered from injuries, Belichick could attempt to confuse St. Louis by at least occasionally switching from the 4-3 to 3-4.

When the Rams pass the ball -- St. Louis averaged an amazing 8.9 yards per pass attempt this season, mainly because Kurt Warner is the most accurate passer in NFL history and fearless throwing the long ball. He passed for 401 yards and 3 TDs in the regular-season 24-17 victory at New England.

The Patriots figure to try to put more pressure on Warner this time (he was sacked 38 times this season) but can't go overboard. He is one of the best at reading blitzes and there isn't a better pass-protecting left tackle in the NFL than Orlando Pace if his knee is close to 100 percent. The Patriots can't afford to get burned too often too early.

Isaac Bruce vs. left cornerback Ty Law could be a draw but right cornerback Otis Smith figures to have problems keeping up with super fast Torry Holt. Crafty Ricky Proehl and speedy Az-Zahir Hakim also are dangerous wide receivers. Tight end Ernie Conwell has good hands despite dropping an easy 2-point conversion pass last week.

New England will try to pressure Bruce, Holt and Proehl to the inside and hope hard-nosed safeties Tebucky Jones and Lawyer Milloy can discourage them with big hits and perhaps force a fumble or two.

Faulk's versatility (5.3 yards per carry and 83 catches) is what makes the Rams so dangerous and the main reason they are the NFL's first team to top 500 points three straight seasons.

Special teams -- New England's special teams were special this season and accounted for two TDs in the upset playoff win over the Steelers. Troy Brown is an excellent punt returner, kick coverage has been solid (particularly punt coverage) and Adam Vinatieri is a clutch kicker capable of connecting from 50 yards. Punter Ken Walter is ordinary.

St. Louis' coverage teams were shaky and could be burned by Brown, who has returned three punts for TDs. Punter John Baker will try to kick away from him. Rams' kicker Jeff Wilkins isn't top notch from long range but is reliable inside 40 yards. New England has been stingy inside the red zone this season so Wilkins could be busy. Trung Canidate, Yo Murphy and Dre Bly are dangerous kick returners but not in Troy Brown's class.

Coaching -- A terrific matchup of head coaches with New England's defensive-minded Belichick vs. St. Louis' offensive-minded Mike Martz. Belichick's challenge will be to contain Faulk while keeping steady pressure on Warner. As smart as Belichick is, he might need 15 players to accomplish all that. Martz surely will have a plan to counter the blitz package Warner is expected to see.

St. Louis had an amazing defensive turnaround under first-year defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. The front seven is undersized but quick and the secondary is experienced and disciplined. New England offensive coordinator Charlie Weis' challenge is to find a way to move the ball on the ground and with short passes to control the clock.

Intangibles -- Both teams enter Super Bowl XXXVI on eight-game winning streaks and are loaded with confidence. The Patriots have capitalized on every possible break and believe they are a team of destiny. The Rams might be one of the two or three best all-around teams in NFL history and definitely believe they are.

There are two significant injury situations -- Brady's ankle and Pace's tender knee. The Patriots certainly would suffer a letdown if Brady couldn't start or had to leave the game. Warner would be more vulnerable without Pace protecting his blind side.

St. Louis thrives playing in domes on artificial turf and will have no excuses in the Superdome. New England has proved it can win under adverse weather conditions but that won't be a factor today.

Getting the early lead would be a huge boost for the Patriots and they scored first in 14 of their 18 games so far this season.

St. Louis was 8-0 on the road this regular season (outscoring opponents 252-133) and four of the five previous perfect road teams since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger won the Super Bowl.

Many of the Rams played in Super Bowl XXXIV. The Patriots have significantly less Super Bowl experience.

On paper, this is a mismatch. The Rams had much better offensive and defensive statistics than the Patriots this season but so did other teams New England has beaten.

The most significant statistical advantage for New England in the regular season was turnover differential. The Patriots were plus-7 and the Rams were minus-10. But St. Louis had a plus-9 turnover differential (10 takeaways and 1 giveaway) in NFC playoff wins over Green Bay and Philadelphia.

The bottom line -- St. Louis has an overall advantage in talent but New England has a chance to win mainly because it thinks it can.

The key for the Patriots could be establishing a running game early to control the clock and keep the score down. They probably can't win if they get behind by more than 10 points. The Rams probably could.

Including the playoffs, New England is 9-0 this season when it scores at least 21 points and 4-5 when it scores fewer. The Patriots probably would need considerably more than 21 points to beat St. Louis.

It won't be surprising if the Patriots lose by fewer than the 14-point spread, but it will be a shock to many if they win outright.