By Bob Matthews
Democrat and Chronicle

(Sunday, February 3, 2002) -- The New England Patriots are insulted about being 14-point underdogs to the St. Louis Rams for today's Super Bowl XXXVI.

"Best Bets" understands why the Patriots feel slighted but also believes the Rams will win by more than two touchdowns.

New England has had an impressive run with eight consecutive victories (including two in overtime) by a combined score of 188-107. But St. Louis also has won eight straight in more convincing fashion (combined score 281-144).

The Patriots and their fans couldn't care less about statistical comparisons. That's fortunate for them because the Rams had a significant advantage in nearly every category in the regular season:

Yards offense per game -- 418.1 to 305.1.

Yards allowed per game -- 279.4 to 334.5.

Average yardage differential -- Plus-138.7 to minus-29.4.

Average time of possession -- 31:45 to 30:48.

The most glaring statistical advantage for New England in the regular season was turnover differential. The Patriots had 35 takeaways and 28 giveaways (plus-7) and the Rams had 34 takeaways and 44 giveaways (minus-10). But St. Louis had a plus-9 differential in two playoff games (10 takeaways, 1 giveaway).

The most significant position-by-position advantage for St. Louis is at starting quarterback. Kurt Warner of the Rams is the top QB in the NFL today and has won two league MVP awards in his three full seasons.

New England QB Tom Brady is relatively inexperienced in his second NFL season (first as a starter) and has a sore ankle. Veteran Drew Bledsoe is immobile and rusty.

The best hope for the Patriots is to knock Warner out of the game early. The second-best hope for New England is two or more Warner interceptions.

The Patriots and their fans also discount the team's championship history. That's wise considering that New England was 0-3 and outscored 132-41 in the 1963 AFL title game and Super Bowls XX and XXXI. Both Super Bowl losses were in New Orleans.

Snow helped the host Patriots in their playoff victory over Oakland but weather won't be a factor Sunday in the Superdome. The Rams are at their explosive best indoors on artificial turf.

In order to pull off the upset, the Patriots probably would need their "A" game while the Rams were playing their "C" game. That might happen but "Best Bets" doesn't expect it to.

It always is tempting to take a hot team getting 14 points, but New England appears outclassed at too many positions in this matchup. Nearly everything the Patriots do well, the Rams do better.

The Rams are 10-7-1 against the spread and the Patriots are 12-5-1, but The "Best Bets" pick is: St. Louis 35, New England 13.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS -- 1-1 picking winning teams outright (166-92 for the season) and 0-2 picking winners against the point spread (127-117-14 for the season); the "Best Bet" is 11-8-1 after 91/2-point favored Pittsburgh lost 24-17 to New England.